Oscar Clues From 1952 to 2022: Nicole Kidman, “Dune” and “Belfast”

You can find strange similarities between almost two years for the Oscars prediction. Just days away from the 28th Screen Actors Guild Awards and three weeks from the BAFTA and Critics Choice ceremonies, there are strange correlations between this year’s crop of nominees and the ceremony that honored the 1952 film year.

Denis Villeneuve’s omission of Best Director for sci-fi drama “Dune” was most shocking when Oscar nominations were announced. Nonetheless, the film nabbed 10 nominations, including Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and All Technical categories, the sixth film in history to achieve this feat.

In current Oscar screenings, the Warner Bros. adaptation. of the famous series should win between three and eight statuettes. However, if it manages to pick up more than five, it will overtake ‘The Bad and the Beautiful’ (1952) as the most awarded film that was not nominated for Best Director.

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At the 25th Academy Awards, Vincente Minnelli’s classic film made history by winning five of its six nominations – supporting actress for Gloria Grahame, writing (screenplay) and three craftsman categories when split between color and black and white (cinematographic, artistic direction-production of sets and costume design). He lost best actor to Kirk Douglas. The last film that came closest to that goal was James Cameron’s “Terminator 2: Judgment Day” (1991), which earned four of its six names.

However, even if “Dune” surpassed its record, the melodrama would still hold the record for the most awarded film. do not nominated for best picture.

Another odd correlation to the 1953 ceremony was that until “Spotlight” (2015), it was the last ceremony where the top picture winner went home with just two Oscars. Fred Zinnemann’s much-loved western “High Noon” was heavily favored to win the night’s top prize, losing to Cecil B. DeMille’s “The Greatest Show on Earth.” Could we see another double with “Belfast” possibly winning the original script?

54 at the time, Shirley Booth won Best Actress for ‘Come Back, Little Sheba’, becoming the first woman in her 50s to win the category. The second wouldn’t come until Julianne Moore, also 54, won for “Still Alice” (2014). After her Golden Globe Leading Actress win and never having received a SAG Film Award, Nicole Kidman, nominated to play Lucille Ball in ‘Being the Ricardos,’ is 54. She takes on first-time Oscar nominee Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”), three-time Oscar nominee Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) and former winners Penélope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”) and Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter” ).

Finally, the big winners of the 1953 celebration for picture, director and the four acting categories went to six different films: ‘The Greatest Show on Earth’ (pictured), John Ford for ‘The Quiet Man’ (director), Gary Cooper for “High Noon” (actor), Booth (actress), Anthony Quinn for “Viva Zapata!” (supporting actor) and Grahame (supporting actress). It was a first in the history of the Oscars. Since then, it has only happened three more times:

  • 29th Oscars (for 1956): “Around the World in 80 Days” (photo), George Stevens for “Giant” (director), Yul Brynner for “The King and I” (actor), Ingrid Bergman for “Anastasia” ( actress), Anthony Quinn for “Lust for Life” (supporting actor) and Dorothy Malone for “Written on the Wind” (supporting actress)
  • 78th Oscars (for 2005): “Crash” (photo), Ang Lee for “Brokeback Mountain” (director), Philip Seymour Hoffman for “Capote” (actor), Reese Witherspoon for “Walk the Line” (actress), George Clooney for “Syriana” (supporting actor) and Rachel Weisz for “The Constant Gardener” (supporting actress)
  • 85th Oscars (for 2012): “Argo” (photo), Ang Lee for “Life of Pi” (director), Daniel Day-Lewis for “Lincoln” (actor), Jennifer Lawrence for “Silver Linings Playbook” (actress), Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained” (supporting actor) and Anne Hathaway for “Les Miserables” (supporting actress)

Could it happen again this year with so many categories on the move? The film with the best shooting to win multiple categories is “The Power of the Dog” in picture, director for Jane Campion and supporting actor for Kodi Smit-McPhee. However, if “Belfast” tops the picture and someone like Troy Kotsur pulls off the upset (he’s a strong contender to win the SAG Award this weekend), we might see the fifth occurrence.

Coincidentally, Mexican actor Quinn became the second Latino to win an acting award, two years after José Ferrer won lead actor for ‘Cyrano de Bergerac’ (1950), and was also nominated the same evening as Quinn for “Moulin Rouge” in the best actor category. . This year, Ariana DeBose is looking to become the second Latina to win an acting award after Rita Moreno won supporting actress for the original “West Side Story” (1961).

All of these could just play more into the wide-open narrative we see in multiple races or it could be contextual clues about who will win the big prizes.

Final voting for the Oscars opens March 15.

Oscars 2022 Predictions

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